This is truly horrifying.
If the presidential election were held today, according to Five Thirty Eight‘s political poll guru Nate Silver,
As scary as that sounds, it’s true — if the election were held today, Trump would defeat
He tweeted that second (below) and as you can see, in that one, Clinton still is expected to win the election by a fair margin (below):
CLINTON still leads in our polls-plus model, which adjusts for Trump’s convention bounce.
Basically, what’s happening is that the first (scary) poll with Trump the winner is looking only at polls taken right this moment, immediately after The Donald’s speech at the Republican National Convention, and right in the middle of a big email scandal the Democrats are now experiencing.
Sure, if the whole country voted this evening, The Donald would actually get enough of a “convention bump” to win — but the whole country doesn’t vote this evening.
So while the first chart may make headlines, it’s the second one — the polling methodology that tracks historical trends, campaign changes, and accounts for what will inevitably be a decrease after Trump’s convention bump from the last few days — that is much truer to what will likely happen in November.
The state-by-state data itself is fascinating; click HERE to play around more with that (and see where your state ends up in the Trump v. Clinton sweepstakes!).
But in the meantime, while we should be kinda worried about The Donald anyways, you probably don’t need to tear your hair out… yet (below):
Let’s not even make this close, America…
[Image via Dennis Van Tine/Future Image/WENN.]
Read more: perezhilton.com